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The argument that 'the days of the tank are over' has been around for many
years, and certainly since the appearance of the man-portable guided missile
in large numbers such as during the Yom Kippur war. The advent of the highly
capable Attack Helicopter and long-range, smart top-attack precision
munitions have only added to this debate. However, tanks remain in the world
in large numbers – at least 100,000 by current estimates – and in a
surprisingly large number of countries.
Whilst the supremacy of armour on the modern battlefield will continue to be
challenged by ever more sophisticated anti-armour systems, the requirement for
highly mobile, protected direct firepower that can operate in all conditions
and climates will remain an enduring requirement to support the infantry. It
is this 'endurance' characteristic and the ability to operate in all
circumstances which is unique and is not shared by helicopters and aircraft.
What is certain to change is the shape and size of future tanks. The key is
that new technology will allow protection to be delivered in quite different
ways. Traditionally, protection has been provided through ballistic armour
which, because of its weight, has to be optimised over a relatively narrow
frontal arc, with reduced protection on the sides, top rear and belly. Thus
full protection is only possible on a small proportion of the total surface
area. In the future a more holistic approach is likely to incorporate a wide
range of 'survivability' characteristics in view of the three-dimensional
and all round threat.
These measures include: signature reduction in all aspects – acoustic,
visual, thermal, radar cross-section etc; suites of active and passive
defensive aids and electro-optic countermeasures; and inherent redundancy in
vehicle design and crew i.e. the ability to sustain considerable damage yet
be able to continue fighting. The concept is based on a theory of 'don’t
be detected – if detected, don’t be acquired – if acquired, don’t be hit –
if hit, don’t be penetrated – if penetrated, don’t be killed'. Such an
approach is likely to see future tanks of much smaller design and of
significantly lesser weight. In turn, reduced weight and size will improve
mobility and enable armour to be deployed more rapidly, strategically if
necessary, whilst also reducing the very considerable mobility and logistic
support that the heavy 60-70 tonne MBTs tanks of today require.
In terms of firepower, smart, extended range munitions such as fire and
forget Gun Launched Anti-tank Guided Missiles, pre-programmable ammunition
and other novel natures are all likely to increase the potency of armour. In
coming to a balanced view on the future of the tank, the heavy modern tank
of today has as much in common with the Mark V tank of 1916 as it will have
with it’s successor in 2030.
Digitisation of the future battlefield has been identified as essential, but
base architecture programmes essential for the target data transmission
through battlefield management systems is currently running some ten to
fifteen years behind schedule. This time lag may enable the tank in its
present form to survive for much longer than many analysts had previously
predicted.
As we enter the 21st Century, we see the major defence orientated countries
of the world undergoing a major doctrinal and conceptual rethink based on
the information age, embracing new IT and digital technology capabilities.
The future, however, always has its roots in the present and while the large
fleets of tanks we now have may be more visible from space, and more
difficult to protect from remotely fired missiles and guns, the armies who
have them will continue to explore and exploit armoured 'stretch'
technologies to ensure their armoured capability is credible until successor
technologies appear in service.
In terms of NBC defence, there will be an increasing requirement to provide
a detection capability, coupled with the rapid passage of NBC hazard
information. Such assets should be capable of matching the performance of
other reconnaissance troops. Whilst detection may remain a core
reconnaissance skill, in depth identification and analysis will be required,
provided by a range of vehicles across the joint battlespace.
The need to conduct rapid and efficient decontamination will remain. These
capabilities must be supported by a robust suite of other NBC defensive
measures designed to minimise casualties whilst maximising operational
efficiency.
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